Oscar Winners That Overcame The (Betting) Odds

Kathmandu, Feb 24 : The 87th Academy Awards are over, capping a night where some of Hollywood’s brightest stars went home with affirmation in the form of little golden statues–or, at least, with the promise of such an object being delivered to them in short order.

Few of those actors and filmmakers, however, should have been surprised by the awards they did or didn’t receive: online odds makers successfully predicted winners in 4 out of 25 categories.

The big winners were particularly easy to pick, with favorites Birdman winning Best Picture, Eddie Redmayne taking Best Actor in a Leading Role, and Julianne Moore emerging with Best Actress honors.

While the degree of predictability may come as something of a shock, it’s not for industry observers like film data analyst Stephen Follows, who posits a prognostication success rate of 77% for Best Picture, 93% for Director and 77% for Actor/Actress.

Read on to see the full list of winners below.

Projected winner: Birdman (Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher and James W. Skotchdopole)
Actual winner: Birdman

ACTOR – in a Leading Role
Projected winner: Eddie Redmayne ( The Theory of Everything)
Actual winner: Redmayne

ACTRESS – in a Leading Role
Projected winner: Julianne Moore ( Still Alice)
Actual winner: Moore

ACTOR – in a Supporting Role
Projected winner: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
Actual winner: Simmons

ACTRESS – in a Supporting Role
Projected winner: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
Actual winner: Arquette

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Projected winner: How to Train Your Dragon 2 (Dean DeBlois and Bonnie Arnold)
Actual winner: Big Hero 6 (Don Hall, Chris Williams and Roy Conli)

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Projected winner: Birdman (Emmanuel Lubezki)
Actual Winner: Birdman

COSTUME DESIGN
Projected winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Milena Canonero)
Actual winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

DIRECTING
Projected winner: Birdman (Alejandro G. Iñárritu)
Actual winner: Birdman

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Projected winner: CitizenFour (Laura Poitras, Mathilde Bonnefoy and Dirk Wilutzky)
Actual winner: CitizenFour

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
Projected winner: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1 (Ellen Goosenberg Kent and Dana Perry)
Actual winner: Crisis Hotline

FILM EDITING
Projected winner: Boyhood (Sandra Adair)
Actual winner: Whiplash (Tom Cross)

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Projected winner: Ida (Poland; Directed by Pawel Pawlikowski)
Actual winner: Ida

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Projected winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Frances Hannon and Mark Coulier)
Actual winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

MUSIC – Original Score
Projected winner: The Theory of Everything (Jóhann Jóhannsson)
Actual winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alexandre Desplat

MUSIC – Original Song
Projected winner: “Glory” from Selma (Music and Lyric by John “John Legend” Stephens and Lonnie “Common” Lynn)
Actual winner: “Glory”

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Projected winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel (Adam Stockhausen; Anna Pinnock)
Actual winner: The Grand Budapest Hotel

SHORT FILM – Animated
Projected winner: Feast (Patrick Osborne and Kristina Reed)
Actual winner: Feast

SHORT FILM – Live Action
Projected winner: The Phone Call (Mat Kirkby and James Lucas)
Actual winner: The Phone Call

SOUND EDITING
Projected winner: American Sniper (Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman)
Actual winner: American Sniper (Alan Robert Murray and Bub Asman)

SOUND MIXING
Projected winner: American Sniper (John Reitz, Gregg Rudloff and Walt Martin)
Actual winner: Whiplash (Craig Mann, Ben Wilkins and Thomas Curley)

VISUAL EFFECTS
Projected winner: Interstellar (Paul Franklin, Andrew Lockley, Ian Hunter and Scott Fisher)
Actual winner: Interstellar

WRITING – Adapted Screenplay
Projected winner: The Imitation Game (Written by Graham Moore)
Actual winner: The Imitation Game

WRITING – Original Screenplay
Projected winner: Birdman (Written by Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. & Armando Bo)
Actual winner: Birdman

Forbes