Nepal’s senior communist leader Puspa Kamal Dahal aka “Prachanda’ is flying to Beijing on Sunday on official invitation of Chinese President Xi Jinping with a five member delegation.

Speaking to a select few journalist on the eve of his visit on Saturday, Prachanda said that his visit will aim to bring China and India together on developing Nepal. ” The trend of instigating one neighbor towards another should be stopped. Nepal can benefit from its both neighbors, only if we work closely with each other,” Prachanda said echoing the statement of his deputy Baburam Bhattarai.

Bhattarai had proposed that Nepal act as a bridge between both nations when the Chinese Prime Minister had visited Nepal last January.

Elaborating on his visit, Prachanda laid stress on the need to garner support from neighboring nations to hold Constituent Assembly elections and said that his visit will focus on garnering economic support from China.

“Discussions will be held on political issues, but politics are Nepal’s internal affairs. So, my visit will basically center on economic cooperation,” Prachanda said elaborating that extension of Chinese railway till Kathmandu, extension of ports between China and Nepal, transformation of Kathmandu into a metro city and development of herbs will highlight the discussion.

On the occasion, Prachanda clarified that he is visiting China as the Coordinator of the High Level Political Mechanism that presently governs the Interim Election Council and added that he represents the interests of all political parties and the government.

He said that the agenda of his meetings have been endorsed by major political party leaders and the interim cabinet.

In China Prachanda is scheduled to address a conference of Nepal and Chinese intellectuals in Chengdu on the first day and than head to Beijing where he will hold consultations with Chinese President, Prime Minister among other influential Chinese leaders.

After that Prachanda will visit Chinese industrial cities and than head to Hong Kong from where he will return back home.

KATHMANDU: Nepal’s politicians have always tried to balance their ties with both of its giant southern and northern neighbors but so far no one has succeeded, at least with tangible results. The erstwhile Maoist Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai had also put a lot of efforts to visit China as officiating Prime Minister, but appointment with the Chinese President was available for him only in June. But, his party’s supremo, Puspa Kamal Dahal seems to be luckier than him. He is rumored to get the opportunity to hold dialogue with Xi Jinping.

A vernacular Nepali weekly news portal while confirming the report about Dahal’s, who is more famous for his war time name “Prachanda”, visit to China on April 14 claimed that the visit has been sponsored by the Chinese embassy in Kathmandu.

The visit is seen with importance due to two factors that are attached with Prachanda’s own and his party’s political ambition and China’s renewed interest in its neighborhood – especially Nepal which still remains a playground for the western powers for ‘upsetting’ Tibetan issue.

The recent formation of the Chief Justice led Interim Electoral Cabinet (IEC) in Nepal marked a new phase of transition. With various issues related with the constitution drafting still unsettled, instability across the nation, is predicted more than it was during the early CA elections. Scores of ethnic and regionalist groups’ demands for a ethnic/regional federal states have not been addressed or managed. An unstable neighborhood is never in the interest of a nation, that is trying hard to subside its own secessionist groups.

If the formation of federal states is carried out on the basis of ethnicity or ‘unitary ethnic identity’ as demanded by some recently formed ethnic-based and regional-based politics forces in Nepal, it is sure to be creating more hurdles for the neighbors- who are finding it hard to have their concerns addressed even with a centralized government in the present stage.

Prachanda comes into picture at this very moment. As the person who brought Nepal to this present stage- through bloodshed and later through peaceful politics- he is presently one of the mostly looked after political strategist that the nation has. With China adopting a more close-neighborhood policy, as announced by Jinping himself, Prachanda’s tour seems significant, though the dialogue between the duo still remains unconfirmed.

Apart from the China factor, the visit is certain to add some muscles to his party’s standing among the major political parties. In the recent time, relationship of Nepal’s older parties like the Nepali Congress and CPN UML’s communication with Indian centers has remained unhealthy. This was ascertained when the Maoist led Bhattarai government continued ruling even though NC President Koirala and UML’s Oli had communicated their willingness to take the reins. With Bhattarai cherishing support from Delhi, Prachanda’s visit might win the UCPN Maoist support from Beijing.

These confluence of support to Prachanda’s party will be a substantial threat to the claims of NC and UML, who are presently focused on strengthening their electoral standing by campaigning across the nation. If Prachanda meets Jingping, than he will one of the leader from South Asian nations to hold talks in the great hall. Adding to it, if the dialogue remain substantial, it will surely boost his party’s electoral campaign that aims to win a majority in the upcoming CA.

Lack of two third majority of any of the political parties and polarization leading to confrontation between the major forces had obliterated the earlier endeavor to draft the constitution. With preparations to forge alliance with the Madhesh-centric parties, Prachanda has hopes to remain a dominant force in the next CA too. This visit might just provide him the stamina to sustain his aspirations.

Family Politics!

Besides Prachanda and his party’s claims that he will be holding dialogue with China’s President, his family politics is also surprisingly attached with this trip and shocking too, to some extent. The Maoist supremo will be heading to China with his wife and his recently India-returned son Prakash Dahal. Though Prakash was absconding from the nation and from Prachanda’s sight after he eloped with party co-cadre, he has recently returned home. And Prachanda has nullified all disciplinary actions taken by the party against him and has paved way for his son to accompany him to the Great Hall. The news report claimed that Prachanda has denied not to take any of the senior leaders of the party with him citing secrecy reasons.

KATHMANDU: A day after Nepal’s President Dr Ram Baran Yadav endorsed the budget ordinance, ruling and political parties started debating the move.

Till Tuesday, the ruling allies were slamming the President for not cooperating and the opposition parties were praising the President, but on Wednesday the scenario turned upside down.

During a press interaction program organized by the Reporters Club Nepal in Kathmandu on Wednesday, ruling party leaders termed the President’s move as a ‘decision taken by the guardian to secure the interest of all Nepalese”.

And contrary to it, leaders from opposition party camp termed it to be ‘unfortunate and unprecedented move” that has ‘shocked them”.

Speaking at the program, CPN UML leader Pradeep Gyanwali accused the President of taking an contradictory decision arguing that the decision taken in the evening was contrary to his urge for bringing the budget through consensus during daytime.

” President’s request and his action taken in evening yesterday do not match,” Gyanwali said adding, ” we don’t know why the President took such action, but it surely has surprised and saddened us.”

” We hope to find an answer to this from the President in the days ahead,” Gyanwali added claiming that the unilateral preparation of the budget and announcement of CA elections by the government had intensified political struggle between the ruling and opposition parties .

Endorsing Gyanwali’s statements, Nepali Congress leader Ram Sharan Mahat stated that the President should have consulted political parties before endorsing the budget ordinance. Mahat opined that not discussing the issue with parties, was a grave mistake on the President’s part.

He however appreciated the President’s cooperation in hindering the Maoist-led government to bring a full fledged budget. Mahat said that though the budget was necessary for keeping the national economy floating, he argued that it should have been brought in consultation with the opposition parties too.

Stating that the government had closed doors for consensus talks, Mahat said that there is no other alternative than to launch stern agitation to form a national consensus government.

He opined that the President too should support the opposition parties to resolve ongoing status quo by fixing a definite deadline to form national consensus government.

However, UCPN Maoist leader Agni Sapkota praised the President’s step by terming it as an rational decision for the welfare of 3 billion Nepalese people. He said that the President had averted an untoward situation by endorsing the budget at a critical juncture.

Stating that the budget was brought under compulsion by the government, Sapkota said that the President’s cooperation had foiled the opposition parties’ conspiracy to capture state power by using budget as a bargaining chip.

On the occasion, Sapkota ruled out the dissolution of incumbent government unless political parties resolved all outstanding issues in a package.

News Commentary-CHITRA RAJ BHANDARI:  The closing deadline to forge consensus on outstanding political issue and corresponding hopes and fears among political parties of Presidential intervention in Nepal’s politics, has become the most debated topic.

Calculating the pros and cons of such decision for the President, its seems that President Dr Ram Baran Yadav, does not intends to land in a political quagmire and initiate a process that earlier had deprived Gyanendra Shah of his throne.

On Monday, the President has fixed November 22 as the date for resolving all contentions between political parties. Some analysts and commentators have gone beyond this deadline and its message and claimed that the President will directly intervene in politics by dissolving incumbent Bhattarai government.

However given the constitutional hurdles, lack of political support, and lack of support from foreign power sources, the President wont make such interventions. Here is why.

President’s press aide Rajendra Dahal, while ruling out Presidential action after in post November 22 period, said that the President set the date as it was the date fixed for holding CA elections. Dahal said by fixing the date, the President wanted to make sure that the political parties will avoid further political void, by leaving the nation without a future course. So, according to Dahal, the President is no where intending to remove Bhattarai government and call parties to form a new national consensus government.

Even if the President does removes Bhattarai government and calls for forming national consensus government, the situation does not seems to be resolving. Primarily so because, the action will be against the interest of UCPN Maoist, JDMF and other ruling parties, which held majority of the votes in the erstwhile Constituent Assembly. With such animosity, the President will find him alligned with the opposition parties- Nepali Congress , CPN UML and others. And this is least thing that the President will do to preserve the neutrality and guardian role  of his post.

Recent news reports claimed that the President might use article 38 (8) of the Interim Constitution to dissolve the government and to call for the formation of a new consensus government. But this is not possible given that he will need backing from all political parties and not only from the opposition parties- which seem to urge for his active role.

Taking political power in hand by dissolving the government has high risk for the President. If, as reported, the President dissolves government, than he will be obliged to deliver a new government to the nation. But given the lack of support from the UCPN Maoist, ruling madhesh based and other fringe parties, he is not likely to receive a PM candidate that is supported by all political parties.

In normal condition, when the parliament existed, the President would have resorted to the parliament for holding major based election to elect a PM, even if parties failed to deliver consensus PM candidate. But given the legislative-less state of the country, the President does not have that option open for him. And calculating this potential risk of pushing the nation into further crisis by not being able to appoint a PM, after removing the existing PM,  the President  will not willing to take on such a course.

Even if the President is willing to take all the afore mentioned risk, opposition parties will be not so much willing to lend their support to him.  Because they internally fear that such an action might repeat the Gyanendra saga. A decade earlier political parties had done such an exercise and empowered the then king Gyanendra to remove and install governments. The moves had given rise to the installation of active monarchy in the country. In the present context, pushing the President to become active in politics and state affairs might empower the President as ordinary successor of monarchy rule. And Congress and UML are well aware of this trend.

Another of the major  factor which might restrict the President to intervene in Nepal’s politics is the lack of clear directions from the neighboring nations- India and China. The Indian and Chinese power centers have denied any clear standing on the President-political party struggle in Nepal. Both of these nations, have remained mum on the deepening political crisis, claimed a Congress leader. The leader claimed that both of these neighbors so far have supported political parties in resolving political crisis on their own rather than seeking Presidential interventions. So they too are in wait and see mode and this had left the President backless.

But this interpretations do not mean that the President will sit tight after November 22.  Of course he will intensify dialogues and discussions with political parties and other stake holders- national and international- seeking advise for his actions.  This discussions will eventually prepare the ground work for his direct interventions in state affairs, which he might take later on if the political parties keep on dejecting him and the nation.

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Narayan Man Bijukche is one of most revered leftist politicians in Nepal and is mostly popular for his theoretical understanding of the leftist ideology and more than that his denial for assuming power in the state politics. As Chairman of Nepal Labor and Peasants Party, Bijukche aka Rohit is also equally taken as a dexterous political analyst and thinker. Reportersnepal.com’s Rishi Dhamala and Chitra Raj Bhandari spoke to this inspiring political think tank on issues related to Nepal’s political stalemate. Here are the edited excerpts.

Q. Is it possible to hold CA and local elections simultaneously?
Bijukche: Yes, it is possible by preparing two types of ballot papers. One of this paper should be made for selecting CA representative and other one for selecting local representative. The local body elections should be either held before the CA elections or during the CA elections.

Q Why are political parties mute on holding local elections?
Bijukche: The nation would not have been in this condition if the parties had some ideas or morality. We had stressed on the need to reinstate the local bodies or holding fresh elections 10 years earlier, but they denied to do any of that. Major political parties’ actions are determined by the orders of our foreign friends. Though the nation is undergoing such hardships, none of the major parties have come forward for holding local elections. None of them care for public’s sentiment. As responsible persons they must figure out the actual problem.  It is their primary responsibility to head for hospital, if the ailment gets serious. The aliment is serious now.

Q Are the CA elections possible in April/May
BIJUKCHE: Given the present circumstances, I don’t think it is possible. There are host of provisions in the Interim Constitution to be amended and besides it major political parties are ever slipping away from their commitment and stance. Lack of trust between major political parties have positioned them apart. In such circumstances, coming together for amending existing laws and making new laws for holding CA elections within April/May seems to be a ambitious task.

Q Amending Interim Constitution is a contended issue among major parties. What would be suitable process for it and why are major parties not resorting to it.
BIJUKCHE: Constitution amendment has become a contentious issue due to the unwillingness of political parties to work in national interest. The most suitable and best alternative to amend the Interim Constitution would be to use the Presidential rights. Even though lead parties are well aware of this alternative, they fear that using it might foster Presidential rule and eventually rob them of the state reins.

Q So, where do you think Nepal is heading? And what should the President do?

Trust defect between political parties and their incapability to transcend over personal and partisan interests is moving the nation towards anarchy. The President should take the reins in his hands for some days with the consent of political parties. This will pave way for reseting the political course. But, as i told earlier, the lead political parties will never urge the President to do so.

Q, Can the President remove Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai?

Why not, if all political parties urge the President for such an action. The President himself can’t take such an action, but if all political parties urge him to do so, he definitely can do so by taking the state reins in control.

Q The opposition is obstructing budget. What is your appraisal of the confrontation?

Surrenderism on the part of opposition parties can lead the nation towards anarchy. Strong opposition is the backbone of a strong democracy. But in Nepal, opposition parties have utterly failed to exhibit a strong and leading role. Both Nepali Congress and CPN UML have failed to take strong stance on resolving political status quo. They have reflected lack of judgement and commitment to work for national interest. And this has brought the nation to the present condition.

Q Do you think PM Bhattarai will step down?

No one will step down from his position terming himself incapable. Similarly, Bhattarai will also not step down unless he is forced to do so. He must be pressurised to step down. However, Bhattarai is not holding the PM’s stead on his own accord. His government is governed by external sources, as his party chairman Prachanda said earlier.